Australia has issued a cautionary note regarding the potential slowdown in its recovering tourism market from China, particularly for the year 2026. Although Chinese travel to Australia is on an upward trajectory, it still lags significantly behind the levels recorded before the pandemic.
Recent statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveal that over the past year, through November, China stood as the second largest source of international visitors to Australia, with arrivals surpassing one million — a notable 16 percent increase compared to the previous year.
Moreover, official data indicates that Chinese tourists spent an impressive $9.2 billion in Australia within the year leading up to March 2025, solidifying China's position as the most lucrative inbound tourism market based on expenditure. However, it’s essential to note that these figures are still considerably lower than what was observed prior to the pandemic.
In 2019, the number of Chinese visitors peaked at over 1.4 million, with their spending hitting $12.4 billion. This stark contrast highlights the ongoing challenges facing the industry. Professor Huang Songshan, a prominent expert in Chinese tourism from Edith Cowan University, expressed concerns about broader economic factors in China impacting outbound travel demand. He stated, "The outlook for this year is heavily reliant on the overall economic landscape. If individuals perceive a decline in their financial wellbeing, they may opt to reduce or entirely forgo overseas travel."
He further pointed out that those Chinese travelers who do venture abroad are increasingly opting for closer destinations rather than long-haul locations like Australia, largely due to the lengthy flight times and higher costs associated with such trips.
Furthermore, data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the nation experienced an annual economic growth rate of 5 percent last year, although the momentum appeared to wane in the latter half, with GDP growth slowing to 4.8 percent in the third quarter and dropping to 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter.
As of November last year, China ranked only as the third largest source of inbound visitors to Australia, with 74,500 arrivals, trailing behind New Zealand, which had 127,820 visitors, and the United Kingdom, with 80,090.
On a more positive note, Tourism Australia has adopted a more optimistic stance about the future. Robin Mack, the managing director, emphasized that "China remains a crucial market for Australian tourism." She noted, "Currently, it ranks as our second-largest source of visitors and our top market regarding total visitor spending."
Tourism Research Australia projects that China will emerge as one of the fastest-growing inbound markets for Australia between 2025 and 2030, with an anticipated average annual growth rate of 7.3 percent. Nonetheless, many industry experts believe it will take years for the volume of Chinese tourists to return to pre-pandemic levels, even as other Australian tourism markets have seen a quick rebound. For instance, the number of South Korean visitors surged nearly twofold from 26,010 in November 2019 to 44,760 in November 2025.
If the trends from last year hold, January and February are expected to be peak months for Chinese visitors once again, likely surpassing the numbers from New Zealand, the UK, and the US during these periods. This spike in arrivals coincides with significant events such as the Australian Open and the Lunar New Year holiday in China, a time when many middle-class Chinese families traditionally embark on international travels.
Though fans of Chinese tennis were disheartened by the withdrawal of star player Zheng Qinwen from the Australian Open due to injury, the tournament unexpectedly drew attention thanks to the presence of Mandopop sensation Jay Chou. Chou, a major figure in the Mandarin-speaking music scene, attended matches in Melbourne and enthusiastically participated in a fan-oriented challenge called "One Point Slam," later enjoying the games from the stands. At one moment, the tournament organizers played his popular song "Nunchucks," which elicited enthusiastic applause from the audience.
The Australian Open reported that Chou's attendance sparked considerable online excitement. A spokesperson remarked, "Jay Chou is an avid tennis enthusiast and has numerous friends in the sport, including several players. We were thrilled to witness such widespread sharing and enjoyment of the content."
Chinese player Bai Zhuoxuan, who advanced to the second round of the tournament, previously shared how Chou serves as a personal inspiration for her. "His music accompanies me on my travels, during training, before matches, and even on vacation," she posted on social media.
Despite the signs of recovery, Professor Huang highlighted that domestic economic issues in China are influencing travel habits.
"With a struggling property market, people's expectations regarding household income have become more subdued," he noted. "For many middle-class families, this translates to cutting back on non-essential expenses, including long-haul international travel."
Additionally, he pointed out that government policies are also shaping travel tendencies, stating, "There’s a stronger push for domestic tourism rather than outbound travel. From a national economic viewpoint, fostering spending within the country to boost domestic demand is beneficial."
Professor Huang also mentioned that China has introduced visa-free entry for citizens from numerous countries, including Australia, as part of initiatives aimed at encouraging inbound tourism spending. "The same rationale applies to inbound tourism — enticing foreign visitors to come and spend money in China," he explained.
In light of these challenges, he affirmed that the promotional efforts of Tourism Australia in China are crucial. Last year, Tourism Australia initiated its "Come and Say G'day" campaign in China, which is part of a larger strategy to rekindle demand. Robin Mack reiterated that China remains a key market. "Throughout the year, we have an extensive program of marketing targeted at both trade and consumers to motivate Chinese travelers to visit Australia," she stated. "So far, the response has been promising."
